Statistics are nearly always a starting point for intelligent thought. Always beware when bureaucrats tell you something is “obvious” and show you a simple plot. They are not necessarily lying, they may just lack the intelligence to recognise the limits of their own abilities.
Bedford Borough are telling us that our children do much better at KS1 (age 7) than our statistical neighbours (SNs) then fall behind at KS2 (age 11) and don’t recover by KS4 (age 16).
1. They do not follow the same children through time and compare them – and nobody knows how many clever children are lost to the state system between KS1 and KS4 because the Harpur Trust have creamed them off by offering one of their many scholarships
2. Nobody has investigated whether Lower Schools are over-inflating KS1 results to make themselves look good. Remember, these are teacher-assessed and Lower Schools have a vested interest in making their teaching look highly effective
3. Statistical neighbours is part of a complex research methodology. It is constantly being updated and more than one set of neighbours exist for Bedford. One of our neighbours now according to one model is Northamptonshire. So…maybe they should compare themselves against us…maybe the conclusion should be that they change to three-tier?
The statistics here are not lies. They are being misused to support the unsupportable.
Talk/write to your local councillor about this. They can stop this chaotic change occurring.